Casino: June 2008

Monday, June 9, 2008

Casino Software Makers

1.Microgaming
2.Odds On
3.Party Gaming
4.Playtech
5.Proprietary
6.Random Logic
7.RTG (Real Time Gaming)
8Wagerlogic

Rule # 1: Know your financial limits and set a budget for the day's play. Just like when you visit a real casino, you may take $300 with you, and when you have spent the money, that is it for the night.

Rule # 2: Never ever share user names and passwords with anybody. This is important, because if you win a large amount and have this in credit. and the details have been passed onto a third party, you may lose your winnings! Would you share your online bank details with too many people?

Rule # 3: Record all user names and passwords and store them in a safe place. If your computer crashes you will be able to start playing again much sooner.

Rule # 4: When possible use an online casino deposit method rated by us. It is much safer.

Rule # 5: If you find an online casino, other than this site, If the casino is not there, then be very careful.

Rule # 6: When you have selected an online casino, then you may wish to read about trusting an online - a short checklist of questions you may wish to know the answers to before you start
playing.

List of Best Casino

Bulk of Majestic Star casino jobs to be filled next yearCasino News

Thursday, June 05, 2008
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
The bulk of the hiring for the Pittsburgh casino won't start until early next year, although some senior management jobs will be filled this summer.
Andre Barnabei, vice president of human resources for PITG Gaming LLC, told the gaming implementation task force Tuesday that the casino will start to ramp up its hiring in three to four weeks, but won't fill the bulk of the jobs until 2009 in the months before its scheduled May opening.
Bob Oltmanns, a PITG Gaming spokesman, said the jobs to be filled before the end of the year will be for senior managers and supervisors.
In all, the Majestic Star casino expects to hire 1,000 people to start off, with about 900 of those jobs being full-time with benefits. Salaries are expected to average between $30,000 to $35,000 a year.
The Northside Leadership Conference, in conjunction with Majestic Star, has been sponsoring a series of workshops to provide information and help to people interested in working at the casino.
So far, about 650 people have attended the sessions, Executive Director Mark Fatla said.

In first year, Meadows casino is coming out a winner

Monday, June 09, 2008
By Gary Rotstein, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Five hundred people lined up on a June morning a year ago outside The Meadows Racetrack & Casino, happy to be the first ones to risk their money on beeping, flashing machines offering a chance -- albeit slim -- to fatten rather than flatten wallets.
They and thousands like them have been returning regularly to the Washington County slots parlor ever since, generating revenue well above expectations. The month of May was the biggest since the facility opened, and by one measure -- the $417 it generated per day per machine -- it has become the most successful of the seven casinos operating in Pennsylvania.
Not even the temporary shell building that lacks most casino amenities, nor ongoing construction that creates parking headaches, nor the addition of table games by West Virginia competitors, nor an economic slowdown accompanied by soaring gasoline prices has discouraged a mostly middle-aged and elderly crowd from flocking to the location 25 miles south of Pittsburgh.
By the time the one-year anniversary is marked Wednesday with giveaways to patrons, slots players will have lost about $230 million -- the less positive way of describing the casino's gross pre-tax revenue -- in the 1,800-plus machines of The Meadows' prefabricated structure. They didn't want to wait until April 2009 for the nicer, permanent casino, which is expected to include 2,000 more machines, multiple restaurants, a racetrack betting operation, bowling alley and attached parking garage.
"I think the people in southwestern Pennsylvania have found their casino, and they've gravitated toward it in unbelievable numbers," said Sanford Rivers, a Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board member from Churchill. "I've not heard the same kind of enthusiasm [from patrons] at some other casinos as I have at The Meadows."
Twenty-one months ago, the gaming board was skeptical of estimates by operators of The Meadows that the facility would eventually generate $215 million a year. A consultant told the board $123 million was more likely, which concerned board members as being insufficient for the facility to sustain itself, considering operating costs. Also, the state counts on taking 55 percent of that for property tax reduction, economic development and other purposes, so whenever the casino makes less money, the state does too.
The first-year revenue has exceeded even The Meadows' own estimates, although it does not yet have to compete with the Majestic Star casino in Pittsburgh, which is expected to open a year from now.
Mr. Rivers said the financial concerns have diminished, even allowing for the future competition. The bigger, permanent facility in North Strabane will help it retain customers, and he and the executives running The Meadows have come to believe there's plenty of gamblers to go around for all of the gambling sites.
"The figures will definitely go higher" once the new building opens, said Bill Paulos, principal of Las Vegas-based Cannery Casino Resorts, which owns The Meadows. "Right now, we're basically maxed out on weekends. We can't park any more people, and it's difficult to get in and out."
By aggressively offering bonuses of free slots play to its regular customers, the casino has also run at a brisk pace on many weekdays. At midday Wednesday, about 1,300 of the 1,825 machines were in use. No parking spaces were open within a few hundred yards of the entrance, and older patrons relied on shuttle buses circulating in the parking lot.
The Meadows gave away $2.4 million of free play in May to those who carry its club cards and insert them into machines while playing. Casinos commonly reward frequent players for loyalty in that manner, but the level of giveaways has become far greater than casino officials anticipated.
General Manager Mike Graninger said the expanded promotion, which erodes some of the casino's profit, is a reaction to the addition of table games late last year by the West Virginia casinos. The facilities fight for many of the same customers.
The casino has altered its slots floor since opening to recognize the preferences of its many older, traditional players, compared with those who patronize Cannery Casino Resorts properties in Las Vegas.
The Meadows replaced glitzy video-image machines with more options to play traditional spinning-reel slots. It also reduced the number of penny slots and video poker machines, while adding more higher-denomination slots, including a separate room for machines with $1 minimum wagers on up to those costing $25 a spin.
"There will always be adjustments," said Mike Jankowiak, director of slots operations, noting 180 of the original machines a year ago have been warehoused.
"We definitely need the bigger facility. We need more slots so that when a guest comes in, they will be able to play their first or second choice of machine. Right now we get so busy that they might be forced to their third or fourth choice."
The machines are regulated by the state and, like at other Pennsylvania casinos, are returning as prize money about 92 percent of what players put in. While some losers grumble, the operation of The Meadows has drawn little public criticism since opening.
It has received none of the 15 fines issued against Pennsylvania casinos by the gaming board for various infractions. It has had none of the six emergency suspensions of licenses of gaming employees across the state. And the five complaints filed against it by the board for modest regulatory problems are relatively small, considering there have been 46 statewide.
North Strabane Manager Frank Siffrinn said the casino's officials have been willing partners on all traffic and construction issues, leaving little for local residents to complain about.
The Meadows is also credited for being more supportive of community needs than some casinos by offering its frequent players options to obtain gift cards and vouchers to patronize local businesses. Also, the Greater Washington County Food Bank received more than 10,000 pounds of food through a promotion last week that gave players $5 in free slots play for donating a can of food.
A food bank representative said there's no indication that losses by casino customers have increased the number of hungry families in the area.
Professionals who treat compulsive gambling say it commonly takes years for problem gamblers' issues to become visible.
Still, the traditional Gamblers Anonymous group that meets Wednesday evenings in Washington, Pa., has seen increased attendance in recent months, according to Norm B., a Western Pennsylvania GA spokesman. On some nights, it is double the six to 10 addicts who used to come, he said.
There's no evidence it's because of The Meadows opening, he said, but the newcomers have more frequently been women and older adults than in the past, fitting the profile of slots players.
While Cannery Casino Resorts is in the process of being sold to an Australian firm, Crown Ltd. -- approvals are awaited from the Pennsylvania and Nevada gaming boards -- officials at The Meadows don't expect that to change any of the operations or plans there, since Crown officials view it as successful.
The primary difference in coming months would be if the state Legislature approves legislation this week that would restrict smoking to 25 percent of the casino floor. Smoking is allowed throughout The Meadows now.
Mr. Paulos vigorously opposed a blanket prohibition on smoking, which some states have enacted, but he said reducing the allowable smoking area is an acceptable compromise.
More long term, he and other casino owners across Pennsylvania have lobbied the Legislature for the right to add poker, blackjack, roulette, craps and other table games, as West Virginia has done. Such a change is apparently at least several years away, but the permanent casino is being built with sufficient space to allow such games to be put in.
For now, there seem to be plenty of gamblers coming through the door unconcerned about that addition. Carol Mortimer of Clairton jokes with a friend that at a travel time of 35 minutes, "it's too close," but they enjoy the afternoon's diversion, the gift cards, meal discounts and other rewards as a trade-off for the money they lose.
"I don't think you ever come out ahead on the slots in the end," the 59-year-old former medical assistant acknowledged. "Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and you just have to be careful you don't bet over your head."

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Gambler's fallacy

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the false belief that the probability of an event in a random sequence is dependent on preceding events, its probability increasing with each successive occasion on which it fails to occur. If a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up many times in a row, a gambler may believe, incorrectly, that heads is more likely on the following toss.[1] Such an event may be referred to as "due". This is an informal fallacy.
The inverse gambler's fallacy is the belief that an unlikely outcome of a random process (such as rolling double sixes on a pair of dice) implies that the process is likely to have occurred many times before reaching that outcome.
Contents
1 An example: coin-tossing
2 Psychology behind the fallacy
3 Other examples
4 Non-examples of the fallacy
5 References
6 See also
7 External links

An example: coin-tossing
The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a coin. With a fair coin, the chances of getting heads are exactly 0.5 (one in two). The chances of it coming up heads twice in a row are 0.5×0.5=0.25 (one in four). The probability of three heads in a row is 0.5×0.5×0.5= 0.125 (one in eight) and so on.
Now suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row. A believer in the gambler's fallacy might say, "If the next coin flipped were to come up heads, it would generate a run of five successive heads. The probability of a run of five successive heads is (1 / 2)5 = 1 / 32; therefore, the next coin flipped only has a 1 in 32 chance of coming up heads."
This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be 0.5, never more or less, and the probability of heads must always be 0.5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they do not count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as that of four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails isn't more likely. In fact, the calculation of the 1 in 32 probability relied on the assumption that heads and tails are equally likely at every step. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. This kind of logic would only work if we had to guess all the tosses' results before they are carried out.
As an example, the popular doubling strategy of the Martingale betting system (where a gambler starts with a bet of $1, and doubles their stake after each loss, until they win) is flawed. Situations like these are investigated in the mathematical theory of random walks. This and similar strategies either trade many small wins for a few huge losses (as in this case) or vice versa. With an infinite amount of working capital, one would come out ahead using this strategy; as it stands, one is better off betting a constant amount if only because it makes it easier to estimate how much one stands to lose in an hour or day of play.

Psychology behind the fallacy
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman proposed that the gambler's fallacy is a cognitive bias produced by a psychological heuristic called the representativeness heuristic [2][3]. According to this view, "after observing a long run of red on the roulette wheel, for example, most people erroneously believe that black will result in a more representative sequence than the occurrence of an additional red,"[4] so people expect that a short run of random outcomes should share properties of a longer run, specifically in that deviations from average should balance out. When people are asked to make up a random-looking sequence of coin tosses, they tend to make sequences where the proportion of heads to tails stays close to .5 in any short segment moreso than would be predicted by chance [5]; Kahneman and Tverksy interpret this to mean that people believe short sequences of random events should be representative of longer ones [6].
The representativeness heuristic is also cited behind the related phenomenon of the clustering illusion, according to which people see streaks of random events as being non-random when such streaks are actually much more likely to occur in small samples than people expect [7].

Other examples
The probability of flipping 21 heads in a row, with a fair coin is 1 in 2,097,152, but the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 0.5. This is an example of Bayes' theorem.
Some lottery players will choose the same numbers every time, or intentionally change their numbers, but both are equally likely to win any individual lottery draw. Copying the numbers that won the previous lottery draw gives an equal probability, although a rational gambler might attempt to predict other players' choices and then deliberately avoid these numbers (for fear of having to split the jackpot with them).
A joke told among mathematicians demonstrates the nature of the fallacy. When flying on an airplane, a man decides always to bring a bomb with him. "The chances of an airplane having a bomb on it are very small," he reasons, "and certainly the chances of having two are almost none!".
A similar example is in the film The World According to Garp when the hero Garp decides to buy a house a moment after a small plane crashes into it, reasoning that the chances of another plane hitting the house have just dropped to zero.

Non-examples of the fallacy
There are many scenarios where the gambler's fallacy might superficially seem to apply but does not, including:
When the probability of different events is not independent, the probability of future events can change based on the outcome of past events (see statistical permutation). Formally, the system is said to have memory. An example of this is cards drawn without replacement. For example, once a jack is removed from the deck, the next draw is less likely to be a jack and more likely to be of another rank. Thus, the odds for drawing a jack, assuming that it was the first card drawn and that there are no jokers, have decreased from 4/52 (7.69%) to 3/51 (5.88%), while the odds for each other rank have increased from 4/52 (7.69%) to 4/51 (7.84%). This is how counting cards really works, when playing the game of blackjack.
When the probability of each event is not known, such as with a loaded die or an unbalanced coin. As a run of heads (or, e.g., reds on a roulette wheel) gets longer and longer, the chance that the coin or wheel is loaded increases. If one flips heads 21 times in a row, the odds of the next flip being heads may actually be higher, because the coin is rigged.
The outcome of future events can be affected if external factors are allowed to change the probability of the events (e.g. changes in the rules of a game affecting a sports team's performance levels). Additionally, an inexperienced player's success may decrease after opposing teams discover his or her weaknesses and exploit them. The player must then attempt to compensate and randomize his strategy. See Game Theory.
Many riddles trick the reader into believing that they are an example of Gambler's Fallacy, such as the Monty Hall problem.

References
^ Colman, Andrew (2001). Gambler's Fallacy - Encyclopedia.com. A Dictionary of Psychology. Oxford University Press. Retrieved on 2007-11-26.
^ Tversky, Amos; Daniel Kahneman (1974). "Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases". Science 185: 1124-1131.
^ Tversky, Amos; Daniel Kahneman (1971). "Belief in the law of small numbers". Psychological Bulletin 76 (2): 105-110.
^ Tverksy & Kahneman, 1974
^ Tune, G. S. (1964). "Response preferences: A review of some relevant literature". Psychological Bulletin 61: 286-302.
^ Tversky & Kahneman, 1971
^ Gilovich, Thomas (1991). How we know what isn't so. New York: The Free Press, 16-19. ISBN 0-02-911706-2.

Casino game

Games available in most casinos are commonly called casino games. In a casino game, the players gamble casino chips on various possible random outcomes or combinations of outcomes. Casino games are available in online casinos, where permitted by law. Casino games can also be played outside of casinos for entertainment purposes, some on machines that simulate gambling.
Contents[hide]
1 House advantage or edge
1.1 Standard deviation
2 Categories of casino games
3 Common table games
3.1 Cards
3.2 Dice / Tiles
3.3 Random numbers
4 Common non-table games
4.1 Gaming machines
4.2 Random numbers
5 See also

House advantage or edge
Casino games generally provide a predictable long-term advantage to the casino, or "house", while offering the player the possibility of a large short-term payout. Some casino games have a skill element, where the player makes decisions; such games are called "random with a tactical element." While it is possible through skillful play to minimize the house advantage, it is extremely rare that a player has sufficient skill to completely eliminate his inherent long-term disadvantage (the house edge or house vigorish) in a casino game. Such a skill set would involve years of training, an extraordinary memory and numeracy, and/or acute visual or even aural observation, as in the case of wheel clocking in Roulette.
The player's disadvantage is a result of the casino not paying winning wagers according to the game's "true odds", which are the payouts that would be expected considering the odds of a wager either winning or losing. For example, if a game is played by wagering on the number that would result from the roll of one die, true odds would be 5 times the amount wagered since there is a 5 to 1 probability of any single number appearing. However, the casino may only pay 4 times the amount wagered for a winning wager.
The house edge (HE) or vigorish is defined as the casino profit expressed as a percentage of the player's original bet. (In games such as Blackjack or Spanish 21, the final bet may be several times the original bet, if the player double and splits.)
Example: In American Roulette, there are two zeroes and 36 non-zero numbers (18 red and 18 black). If a player bets $1 on red, his chance of winning $1 is therefore 18/38 and his chance of losing $1 (or winning -$1) is 20/38.
The player's expected value, EV = (18/38 x 1) + (20/38 x -1) = 18/38 - 20/38 = -2/38 = -5.26%. Therefore, the house edge is 5.26%. After 10 rounds, play $1 per round, the average house profit will be 10 x $1 x 5.26% = $0.53. Of course, it is not possible for the casino to win exactly 53 cents; this figure is the average casino profit from each player if it had millions of players each betting 10 rounds at $1 per round.
The house edge of casino games vary greatly with the game. Keno can have house edges up to 25%, slot machines can have up to 15%, while most Australian Pontoon games have house edges between 0.3% and 0.4%.
The calculation of the Roulette house edge was a trivial exercise; for other games, this is not usually the case. Combinatorial analysis and/or computer simulation is necessary to complete the task.
In games which have a skill element, such as Blackjack or Spanish 21, the house edge is defined as the house advantage from optimal play (without the use of advanced techniques such as card counting), on the first hand of the shoe (the container that holds the cards). The set of the optimal plays for all possible hands is known as "basic strategy" and is highly dependent on the specific rules, and even the number of decks used. Good Blackjack and Spanish 21 games have house edges below 0.5%.

Standard deviation
The luck factor in a casino game is quantified using standard deviations (SD). The standard deviation of a simple game like Roulette can be calculated using the binomial distribution. In the binomial distribution, SD = sqrt (npq ), where n = number of rounds played, p = probability of winning, and q = probability of losing. The binomial distribution assumes a result of 1 unit for a win, and 0 units for a loss, rather than -1 units for a loss, which doubles the range of possible outcomes. Furthermore, if we flat bet at 10 units per round instead of 1 unit, the range of possible outcomes increases 10 fold. Therefore,
SD (Roulette, even-money bet) = 2b sqrt(npq ), where b = flat bet per round, n = number of rounds, p = 18/38, and q = 20/38.
For example, after 10 rounds at $1 per round, the standard deviation will be 2 x 1 x sqrt(10 x 18/38 x 20/38) = $3.16. After 10 rounds, the expected loss will be 10 x $1 x 5.26% = $0.53. As you can see, standard deviation is many times the magnitude of the expected loss.
The range is six times the standard deviation: three above the mean, and three below. Therefore, after 10 rounds betting $1 per round, your result will be somewhere between -$0.53 - 3 x $3.16 and -$0.53 + 3 x $3.16, i.e., between -$10.01 and $8.95. (There is still a 0.1% chance that your result will exceed a $8.95 profit, and a 0.1% chance that you will lose more than $10.01.) This demonstrates how luck can be quantified; we know that if we walk into a casino and bet $5 per round for a whole night, we are not going to walk out with $500.
The standard deviation for Pai Gow poker is the lowest out of all common casinos . Many , particularly slots, have extremely high standard deviations. As the size of the potential payouts increase, so does the standard deviation.
As the number of rounds increases, eventually, the expected loss will exceed the standard deviation, many times over. From the formula, we can see the standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the number of rounds played, while the expected loss is proportional to the number of rounds played. As the number of rounds increases, the expected loss increases at a much faster rate. This is why it is impossible for a gambler to win in the long term. It is the high ratio of short-term standard deviation to expected loss that fools gamblers into thinking that they can win.
It is important for a casino to know both the house edge and variance for all of their games. The house edge tells them what kind of profit they will make as percentage of turnover, and the variance tells them how much they need in the way of cash reserves. The mathematicians and computer programmers that do this kind of work are called gaming mathematicians and gaming analysts. Casinos do not have in-house expertise in this field, so outsource their requirements to experts in the gaming analysis field, such as Mike Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds".

Categories of casino games
There are three general categories of casino games: table games, electronic gaming machines, and random number ticket games such as Keno and simulated racing. Gaming machines, such as slot machines and pachinko, are usually played by one player at a time and do not require the involvement of casino employees to play. Random number games are based upon the selection of random numbers, either from a computerized random number generator or from other gaming equipment. Random number games may be played at a table, such as Roulette, or through the purchase of paper tickets or cards, such as Keno or Bingo.

Common table games

Cards
Asian stud
Australian Pontoon
Baccarat
Blackjack
Blackjack switch
Casino war
Caribbean Stud Poker
Chinese poker
Faro
Four card poker
Let It Ride
Mambo stud
Pai gow poker
Red Dog
Spanish 21
Texas Hold'em Bonus Poker
Three card poker
Two-up
Penny-up

Dice / Tiles
Craps
Pai Gow
Sic bo
Chuck-a-luck

Random numbers
Big Six wheel
Roulette

Common non-table games

Gaming machines
Pachinko
Slot machine
Video Lottery Terminal
Video poker

Random numbers
Bingo
Keno

List of Casino